All-Star voting opened Wednesday afternoon and when the teams are announced next month, the Cincinnati Reds will likely feature a first-time All-Star. Only two players on the Reds’ roster have ever been selected for an All-Star Game, closer Alexis Díaz and utilityman Santiago Espinal, and neither is having the type of start to their season that would merit a selection this season.
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The rules say the Reds must have at least one All-Star, but it’s not out of the question that multiple players will be selected, even if the team’s start has been less than ideal. So, who will represent Cincinnati in Texas on July 16? Here’s a ranking, as of June 5 and in order, of who could be the team’s next All-Star.
Elly De La Cruz
If not for Mookie Betts moving to shortstop this year, De La Cruz would be a favorite to win the fan voting at the position. When voting began Wednesday, De La Cruz’s 2.4 fWAR was second in the National League behind Betts, so he is in the conversation with just his production on the field. Add that production to the hype and highlights and it’s easy to see the second-year shortstop make the All-Star team on merit alone — but popularity doesn’t hurt.
De La Cruz debuted a year ago Thursday to much fanfare as the recently named top prospect in baseball. That first game came against Betts and the Dodgers, with De La Cruz walking and scoring in his first career plate appearance and then doubling in his second. It was the next day that the rest of the country got excited about him when he hit his first home run (and it didn’t hurt that Bally Sports’ John Sadak rose to the occasion with his now-iconic “that ball had a family” call) and also tripled in the same game. The Reds went on to win 22 of their first 30 games with De La Cruz in the lineup and he instantly became a mainstay of MLB advertising.
Since then, De La Cruz has had his ups and downs, like any other player, but he’s still easily the most visible and marketable Reds player since perhaps Ken Griffey Jr. (with apologies to Joey Votto, who had a more cult-like following among the baseball intelligentsia). That popularity makes De La Cruz among the favorites to be voted in by the fans, which is still the first way to make an All-Star team.
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Shortstop will always be one of the toughest positions to crack for an All-Star nod, but De La Cruz has the name and game to do it.
Hunter Greene
Greene’s been “a guy” since high school and he’s having his best season yet as a professional. Entering his start Thursday against the Cubs, Greene is 3-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 12 starts. He’s also 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last seven starts.
The 24-year-old is still developing into the ace he has been predicted to become, but he’s moving in the right direction. His expected batting average (.193) and expected slugging percentage (.298) are in the top 90th percentile in baseball, while his fastball is not only one of the hardest in the game (97.7 mph average), it’s also one of the most effective pitches in the game, according to Statcast’s Run Value metric.
Making the All-Star team as a pitcher is difficult, especially considering the rules mandating at least one player per team, but Greene has the mix of results and recognition that could earn him a ticket to Arlington.
Fernando Cruz
The reality of All-Star selection is that middle relievers usually get squeezed out by starters and closers, but if rosters were actually put together to win the game, middle relievers would dominate. This year, no matter the time, no matter the situation, Reds manager David Bell has been able to dispatch Cruz, who may own baseball’s single best pitch: his split-fingered fastball.
Before we get to the statistical case, there’s an anecdotal case that is tough to dispute:
Fernando Cruz, Disgusting Splitters. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/A1lEJZ8EpG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2024
That first pitch is a splitter to Luis Arraez in an 11-pitch at-bat. Arraez is the best contact hitter in baseball — and it’s not close. Arraez’s 5.9 percent strikeout rate is the best in baseball; the second-best rate among qualified hitters belongs to Mookie Betts, who strikes out 9.3 percent of the time. Arraez has struck out 16 times this season (and Betts 26). Going deeper into the stats, Arraez’s swing-and-miss percentage (Whiff%) is 9.1, the best in baseball by nearly 2 percent. For pitches out of the strike zone, he swings and misses just 12 percent of the time, the best in baseball by nearly 5 percentage points. With that context, Cruz got Arraez to swing at a ball that bounced in front of the plate. That singular pitch is enough to be considered for an All-Star spot.
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While Cruz may be one of the few who have made Arraez look bad, Arraez is hardly alone. Cruz’s 46.4 percent strikeout rate is second in baseball to Oakland’s Mason Miller (minimum 20 innings pitched). Cruz leads all pitchers (minimum 100 batters faced) in Whiff% at 44.2 percent and batters who swing at pitches he throws out of the zone miss a big-league best of 73.6 percent of those pitches.
(Photo of Elly De La Cruz: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
C. Trent Rosecrans is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Cincinnati Reds and Major League Baseball. He previously covered the Reds for the Cincinnati Enquirer and the Cincinnati Post and has also covered Major League Baseball for CBSSports.com. Follow C. Trent on Twitter @ctrent
