Both the Eastern and Western Conference finals have been a tale of seasoned veterans outlasting young talent. Like the Boston Celtics were on Monday night, the Dallas Mavericks are favored to sweep the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and head to the NBA Finals.
The thing is, the Timberwolves have already shown they can hang with the veterans after sweeping Phoenix and finishing Denver in seven games. But we’ve been waiting to see them pop into that beast mode in this series, and it just hasn’t materialized. While they’ve matched Dallas through most minutes in each game, they haven’t been able to clinch a win yet, faltering in the final minutes of all three games. Anthony Edwards has struggled to match Dallas’ star output, and unless the whole team can have a breakout performance, it doesn’t look good for the Wolves.
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Perhaps the pressure of an elimination game will be enough to push this series back to a Game 5 in Minnesota? But to win the series after going down 0-3 is, as all NBA fans know, a historical improbability.
Here’s a look at the storylines, odds and staff picks for Tuesday’s Game 4 of the Western Conference finals in Dallas.
All odds fromBetMGM.Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
How to watch:8:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Dallas leads series 3-0
Series odds:Mavericks -5000, Timberwolves +1400
The duo of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving has hit high gear in this series. Add in their supporting cast producing at a solid level and it’s hard to see Dallas giving up a win. Both Dončić and Irving had a game-high 33 points in Game 3 on Sunday night, adding six steals, nine assists and 10 rebounds between them. The Mavs’ effort led to their biggest win of the series so far and pushed their odds to win the series from -600 to -5000.
But the numbers hide the fact that entering the fourth quarter, it really looked like Dallas might lose Game 3. Dereck Lively II, a key to the Mavericks’ defense and their plus-minus leader this postseason, was out with a neck injury and the game was tied at 87. It looked like an opening for the Timberwolves. Instead, the Mavericks scored 29 points, 14 of them by Irving, and won the game by 9.
Of course, if Lively is out for Game 4, that hinders the Mavs going forward.
The Timberwolves went from +425 to win the series to +1400. Minnesota’s youth is showing. It’s no indictment on Edwards or the team, either. They’ve already proven their talent and their ability to knock off even the league’s reigning MVP. It may be more a symptom of fatigue than anything. Their series against Denver was grueling and long. And they’ve fought hard through each of these games, just not quite with enough at the end to get a win. Game 2, in particular, was a heartbreaker, with Dallas eking out a one-point victory with a late game-winning shot.
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Edwards had a good game on Sunday night, getting nine rebounds, nine assists and 26 points, including a vicious, acrobatic dunk in the third quarter, during which the Wolves came back from a 12-point deficit. Karl-Anthony Towns had 14 points and 11 rebounds but he went 0-for-8 from three. In this series, he is shooting 27.8 percent from the field and 13.6 percent from 3. If he shows up hot in Game 4, the Timberwolves chances look a lot better.
In the end, Dončić is an All-NBA player, and Irving has done this before. The Mavs continue to show a clutch factor the Wolves can’t match, or haven’t been able to yet.
Expert picks for Timberwolves at Mavericks
More NBA Playoffs coverage
Kyrie Irving, Luka Dončić and the adaptable Mavericks devise yet another way to win
Anthony Edwards and Timberwolves were wrong: They do need more experience
Karl-Anthony Towns’ 3s, Timberwolves defense are nowhere to be found
(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)
Hannah Vanbiber is a staff editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Hannah previously wrote for Gaming Today, New York Sports Day, Rocky Top Insider, MLIVE, and other sports betting outlets as a freelance writer. She started her journalism career in Chattanooga, Tennessee, as a reporter and editor covering local sports. Follow Hannah on Twitter @HannahVanbiber
