BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,758.75
The worst sound at a racetrack is silence. Specifically, it’s the hushed silence that comes as a crowd digests a traumatic breakdown occurring right in front of the grandstand. Saratoga experienced that twice on big days last year, when Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder suffered catastrophic injuries.
Unfortunately, after a meet that had been free of such incidentsuntil Friday afternoon, it happened again in the Saranac. The Big Torpedo and Take Me To Church went down less than a furlong from the wire. That hushed silence extended to the backyard, where seasoned bettors, novices, and children exchanged wordless glances because…well, because what do you say after something like that?
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I lost $35. Others lost far more than that, and to them I extend my condolences.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep things very simple. I love #9 BRIGHTWORK in the 10th, and I’ll have a $100 win ticket (by far my biggest win bet of the meet) in the Grade 3 Prioress.
TOTAL WAGERED: $100.
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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Brightwork, Race 10
Longshot: Our Country, Race 13
R1
Printer’s Alley
Friday Surprise
Bernie Goes Boom
#4 PRINTER’S ALLEY (6/5): Comes into his unveiling with a fantastic string of works for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He sold for just $32,000 at auction earlier this year, but his bottom-side pedigree includes a third dam that threw several real runners, and he may have grown out of whatever issues he had in April; #3 FRIDAY SURPRISE (5/2): Has run second twice in as many starts to date, but may have bounced a bit last time out after a very solid debut. He’s got an experience edge over many other contenders and may still have a right to improve; #9 BERNIE GOES BOOM (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post in his debut and has been working steadily for a very capable barn that doesn’t saddle a ton of horses. This outfit, however, merits respect when it shows up, and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride.
R2
Authentic Gallop
Statesman
Academy
#2 AUTHENTIC GALLOP (8-1): Set a solid pace in his debut and adds blinkers at second asking for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s kin to several very solid routers, including Ami’s Gizmo, who won a Grade 3 over a synthetic surface during his career; #6 STATESMAN (9/2): Debuted with a third-place finish out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t a route some horses enjoy. His dam excelled on both turf and dirt, and he’s a half-brother to Grade 2 turf winner Fashion Business; #11 ACADEMY (6-1): Probably never had a chance in his debut, when he was well behind and raced wide for a trainer whose runners often need a race or two to get going. The blinkers go on, and I think improvement is logical if he draws in off of the AE list.
R3
Tall Paul (MTO)
Nano Man
Street Rod
#7 NANO MAN (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out and faces winners for the first time. Sometimes, that’s a significant step up, but this race features many that have been at this level for quite a while. Add in that he’s run two very good races at this route in as many local starts, and I think he’s well-meant; #1 STREET ROD (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since January, when he topped open company in a turf sprint at Gulfstream. He’s clearly had some issues, but that was a swiftly-run race, and I think he’s a major player if he’s ready to go off the bench; #3 TWISTED FILIGREE (3-1): Ran a big one two back off of a very long layoff and clearly hated the dirt last time out. Improvement going back to his preferred surface is clearly logical; the question is, can he last through an early pace that figures to be hotly-contested?
R4
Forced Errors
Confabulation
Yingle Bells
#9 FORCED ERRORS (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops way down the class ladder. His debut at Churchill was a solid race, he draws favorably for this one, and a win here would be a popular one due to the presence of trainer Nick Zito; #7 CONFABULATION (5/2): Ran a clunker in his debut and is another dropping in class for aggressive connections. He was shipped to Monmouth after that race, and while that’s not necessarily a disqualifying factor for runners from the Chad Brown barn anymore, that and the class drop certainly make me think there isn’t a lot of confidence here; #1 YINGLE BELLS (15-1): Has shown some speed twice in as many starts and goes second off the bench in this spot. The rider switch is a curious one, and I’m expecting this filly to be prominent from the jump at a price.
R5
Federal Judge
Accretive
Pro Oxidant
#5 FEDERAL JUDGE (2-1): Did everything but win last time out in his first start since June of 2023. He set a very solid pace that day going a bit longer and settled for second. He’s since fired a five-furlong bullet drill across the street, and I’m expecting a step forward for high-percentage connections; #6 ACCRETIVE (9/5): Has some back class and certainly merits respect for the meet’s leading trainer and jockey. However, he hasn’t won in quite a while, and while he has excuses for losses against the likes of Baby Yoda and Scotland, no wins in nearly a year makes this gelding’s short price tough to swallow; #8 PRO OXIDANT (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and an owner actively gunning for the meet’s owner’s title. He’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, and the outside draw should give jockey Ramon Vazquez plenty of options.
R6
Brindi
Scarlet Sands
Tam I Am
#6 BRINDI (5/2): Had some issues at the start in her debut but still salvaged a third-place finish behind a well-meant filly. Her experience edge is a plus, and I’m expecting improvement at second asking for a top-tier barn; #1 SCARLET SANDS (5-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and is bred to be a runner. She’s kin to five winners, and her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1 winner Tara’s Tango and graded stakes-winning turders Scarlet Fusion and Scarlet Strike; #9 TAM I AM (6-1): Sports a very solid turf drill on her tab and may be one to watch. She hammered for $300,000 last year, and while the Todd Pletcher barn doesn’t have a great clip with first-out turf horses, the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., may be a clue.
R7
Zadorsky
Cara’s Time
Theresasilverlinin
#4 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has run well here twice, including a last-out second at this level and route. This isn’t a bad group, to be sure, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride back and she’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #5 CARA’S TIME (7/2): Has some back class as a veteran of state-bred stakes races and goes third off the bench here. Her lone start at this seven-furlong distance was a win in one of those events last year, and a repeat of her two-back effort would give her a big shot; #1 THERESASILVERLININ (9/2): Got a strange ride last time out, when she was taken back off the pace and never had a chance. That may explain the rider switch, and from the rail, I think trainer instructions are pretty clear: Get out quickly and go as fast as you can, as long as you can.
R8
Tap Into This
Capricious Outcome
Our Favorite Son
#3 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Debuted with a solid second at Churchill Downs and is bred to love added distance, which he gets at second asking. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern where a strong two-back drill is followed up by a maintenance move, and that exists here; #7 CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME (9/2): Comes in with a series of very strong half-mile drills for Chad Brown, and this son of Practical Joke has a right to be precocious. There isn’t much bottom-side pedigree here, which is a bit unusual, but it’s also possible this first-time starter is set to outrun his bloodlines; #9 OUR FAVORITE SON (8-1): Makes his first start for Phil Bauer, whose horses have consistently run very well here this summer. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but if recent works are any indication, he may be talented enough to overcome that hurdle.
R9
Summer Cause (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Laurel Valley
#5 UNLEASH THE POWER (6-1): Rallied from ninth to get the money last time out, and he’s yet to run a bad one in three starts this season. He’s a closer that may need a fair bit to go right, but there’s plenty of early speed in here (at least on paper) and I think he’s got a big chance at a second win in a row; #10 LAUREL VALLEY (8-1): Got a very, very strange ride here a few weeks ago, when he was inexplicably rated off the pace and never had a chance. I expect Irad Ortiz, Jr., to be much more aggressive here, and of the speed horses, this is the one I think has the most chance to run a winning race; #1 MCCULLOUGH (10-1): Came back running off the bench last time out, when he graduated in his turf debut (and his first start since February of 2023). Facing winners for the first time isn’t an easy ask, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a step forward at a generous price for this top-tier barn.
R10
Brightwork
Two Sharp
Autumn Evening
#9 BRIGHTWORK (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 1 Spinaway and would’ve been a contender in the Grade 1 Test, but she acted up in the paddock and was scratched. Judging by the two-back bullet drill, that didn’t affect her much. I love the outside draw, I think she’s ready to go, and the morning line price in the Grade 3 Prioress hits me as a significant overlay; #7 TWO SHARP (7/5): Romped by 11 lengths last time out and takes an ambitious step up in class here. That win was over maidens, and this is a much tougher spot. It’s possible she’s a freak, but at her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against; #2 AUTUMN EVENING (10-1): Didn’t break well in the Grade 3 Victory Ride and finished fourth behind the Test runner-up and two next-out winners. A smooth break likely puts her on or near the lead, and a repeat of her two or three-back efforts downstate would give her a chance at a piece of this.
R11
Quietside
Pondering
The Queens M G
#11 QUIETSIDE (3-1): Rolled home in her debut and has been working well since that outing ahead of the Grade 1 Spinaway. Luis Saez rides back for an outfit that could have a big afternoon, and while this is a competitive race, she hits me as a legitimate favorite; #7 PONDERING (6-1): Won her debut in professional fashion at Ellis Park and is bred to improve with the added distance she gets here. The two-back work here was a very good one, and this is a patient barn whose horses tend to improve with experience; #8 THE QUEENS M G (7/2): Goes for a third stakes win of the meet, and it’s awesome to see a horse run in all three in an era where thoroughbreds just don’t run all that much. This is a tougher field than the ones she’s dispatched in those prior starts, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and is clearly thriving in upstate New York.
R12
War Like Goddess
McKulick
Parnac
#1 WAR LIKE GODDESS (7/5): Looms large in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, contested at a distance where she’s run some of her best races. The inside post allows for a ground-saving trip, and Junior Alvarado’s gotten several very strong efforts out of her since earning the mount late last year; #7 MCKULICK (3-1): Is the other horse that will take plenty of money off of an easy score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. She’s never run a bad race over this turf course, and she may have enough tactical speed to sit closer to the pace than she was last time out; #3 PARNAC (12-1): Was second in the Glens Falls and may have moved a bit too soon that day (though she probably was never beating the winner). She won this race a year ago in wire-to-wire fashion, and she’s never been worse than second in three local outings.
R13
Our Country
Jhirsch
Mr. Mendelssohn
#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a Saturday finale. He may have needed his last-out effort, but was still only beaten less than three lengths despite going through some trouble. The potential to improve he has here, combined with the likely race shape, makes him an appealing value play; #6 JHIRSCH (5-1): Was third last time out behind a runner I like quite a bit earlier in the program. This seems like a weaker spot than the one he exits, and some of his two-turn turf route efforts stack up pretty favorably; #5 MR. MENDELSSOHN (15-1): Ran sixth in a pretty tough starter allowance back in June and adds blinkers in this outing. He was probably left with too much to do that day, and I’m expecting him to show some more early zip here at a price.
